01 April 2025, Singapore - Flash estimates released today showed that private home prices and HDB resale flat prices achieved slim quarter-on-quarter (QOQ) growth in Q1 2025 - rising at a slower pace compared with the previous quarter.

Q1 2025 URA Private Residential Property Index (Flash Estimates)

Private home prices booked a second consecutive quarter of increase as prices inched up by 0.6% QOQ in Q1 2025, following the 2.3% QOQ in Q4 2024 (see Table 1). On a year-on-year basis, the URA PPI was up by 3.1% from Q1 2024. The flash estimates reflect data for the quarter up till mid-March; the final print is will be released on 25 April 2025.

Table 1: URA Private Property Price Index (PPI) Flash Estimates

Prices of both landed homes and non-landed private homes climbed by 0.6% QOQ each in Q1 2025. In the case of landed homes, the price growth reversed the marginal 0.1% QOQ decline in the previous quarter. The slight uptick in landed home prices in Q1 2025 is the first quarterly gain following two quarters of decline. The URA Realis caveat data (up till 23 March 2025) showed that despite a fall in transaction volumes, the average unit price on land area rose across the detached house, semi-detached house and terrace house segments in Q1 2025 from Q4 2024, with detached house posting the steepest growth at nearly 20% QOQ.

Meanwhile, non-landed home prices grew by 0.6% QOQ in Q1 2025 after recording a 3% QOQ growth in Q4 2024. Prices in all sub-markets rose at a slower pace; the increase was spearheaded by the Rest of Central Region (RCR) where prices climbed by 1.0% QOQ in Q1 2025 - moderating from the 3.0% QOQ jump in Q4 2024. During the quarter, only one new RCR project was launched, being The Orie which shifted 687 out of 777 units (see Table 2) at an average price of $2,733 psf, according to caveat data. Meanwhile, existing launches in the RCR, such as Emerald of Katong, Nava Grove, Union Square Residences, and The Continuum also sold units at marginally higher average unit prices in Q1 2025 (till 23 March) from Q4 2024.

Meanwhile, non-landed home prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) increased by 0.6% QOQ in Q1 2025, following the 2.6% QOQ growth in Q4 2024. During the quarter, Aurea in Beach Road was launched, transacting 24 units at an average price of $2,949 psf, based on caveats lodged. Some existing CCR projects also achieved slightly higher average price in Q1 2025 from the previous quarter, including 19 Nassim, 32 Gilstead, Park Nova, and The Collective at One Sophia. On an average unit price ($PSF) basis, the price gap between new non-landed private homes sold in the CCR and that of RCR and OCR in Q1 2025 are at their narrowest in more than 20 years, based on sales data up till 23 March 2025 - at 4.1% between CCR ($2,834 psf) and RCR ($2,722 psf), and 20.6% between the CCR and OCR ($2,349 psf).

Table 2: Sales and average unit price of projects (ex. EC) launched in Q1 2025*

Over in the Outside Central Region (OCR), despite a slew of new launches during in Q1 2025 - comprising Bagnall Haus (freehold) in Upper East Coast Road, ELTA in Clementi, Parktown Residence in Tampines, and Lentor Central Residences - home prices saw muted growth, rising by 0.3% QOQ compared with the 3.3% in Q4 2024. Collectively, the four OCR launches transacted 1,922 units in Q1 2025 (till 23 March), based on caveats lodged. New home sales in the OCR (ex. EC) in Q1 2025 are on track to posting the strongest quarterly sales in more than three years.

All in, PropNex estimates that developers sold more than 3,300 new private homes (ex. EC) in the year-to-March 23 period. Meanwhile, URA Realis caveat data showed that there were around 2,800 units of private homes sold in the resale market in Q1 2025 (till 23 March), which is set to underperform the 3,702 private homes resold in the previous quarter.

Mr Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty said:

"Since the end of 2024, we have witnessed renewed confidence in the private residential market, with successive new launches garnering healthy sales. The moderation in interest rates, Singapore's positive economic outlook, the tight labour market, as well as the launch of projects in attractive locations have all helped to underpin the property market and lifted buyers' sentiment. That said, trade tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks, and we remain cautiously optimistic about the private housing market in 2025.

In Q1 2025, overall private home prices grew at a slower pace of 0.6% QOQ compared with the 2.3% QOQ increase in the previous quarter. We expect the sustained demand for private homes to support price stability this year, with well-located projects potentially achieving benchmark average price when they are put on the market. With construction costs still high, and the firm land prices, we anticipate new launch prices could remain resilient. Price quantum will continue to be a key decision-making factor for homebuyers and investors. In 2025, we forecast that the overall private home prices may climb by 3% to 4% - relatively on par with the 3.9% increase in 2024.

Table 3: Proportion of new private non-landed homes sold (ex. EC) by price range, by quarter

Evaluating the transacted price range of new non-landed private homes (ex. EC) sold, we note that a sizable portion of transactions continues to be done at below $2.5 million (see Table 3). In Q1 2025 (till 23 March), around 72% of the non-landed private new homes transacted were priced at below $2.5 million, up from about 65% in Q4 2024, according to caveats lodged. Units at Parktown Residence, The Orie, Lentor Central Residences, and ELTA accounted for majority of the transactions priced at below $2.5 million in Q1 2025.

We project that new home sales could come in at 8,000 to 9,000 units (ex. EC), supported by moderating interest rates and more launches lined up, while in the private resale market, sales may reach 14,000 to 15,000 units for the full-year 2025."

Q1 2025 HDB Resale Price Index (Flash Estimates)

Flash estimates released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) showed that resale flat prices rose by 1.5% QOQ in Q1 2025, slowing from the 2.6% QOQ increase achieved in Q4 2024 (see Table 4) and is the slowest quarterly increase in five quarters. Still, the HDB price index has now grown for 20 straight quarters since Q2 2020. The HDB said that 6,392 flats were resold in Q1 2025 (up till 27 March 2025) - lower than the 6,928 units in the same period last year.

Based on sales data (retrieved on 1 April 2025), there were 348 resale flats that fetched at least $1 million in Q1 2025, a new quarterly high - surpassing the previous record high of 331 units in Q3 2024. It also marks a 22% increase from the 285 such units resold in Q4 2024 (see Chart 1).

Table 4: HDB Resale Price Index

Chart 1: Number of HDB resale flats sold for at least $1 million by quarter

Ms Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research and Content, PropNex Realty said:

"The HDB resale market has maintained its price growth streak in Q1 2025, although the sales momentum seems to have slowed slightly in the quarter, possibly affected by the large supply of BTO and SBF flats launched in February 2025. We reckon the BTO flats with shorter waiting times and the availability of completed SBF flats could have drawn some demand away from the resale market. That said, we anticipate that sales may pick-up in Q2 and Q3, as some unsuccessful flat applicants could consider buying a resale flat. Meanwhile, we expect HDB resale prices to remain relatively supported in view of the lower number of flats exiting their 5-year minimum occupation period (MOP). The government has noted that some 8,000 flats will meet the 5-year MOP this year, with another 13,500 flats slated to do so in 2026.

According to transaction data (retrieved on 1 April 2025), resale prices mostly climbed across the various flat types, with 3-room resale flats leading growth with a 2.2% QOQ increase (see Table 5). This is followed by 5-room and 4-room resale flats where prices grew by 2.1% QOQ and 1.9% QOQ, respectively in Q1 2025.

Table 5: Average resale flat prices by flat type by quarter

There were 348 units of flats resold for at least $1 million - comprising 148 units of 4-room flats, 123 units of 5-room flats, and 77 units of executive flats. The million-dollar flats sold made up about 5.5% of the sales in Q1 2025, up from the 4.6% proportion in Q4 2024, as per transaction data.

We note that in recent quarters, the number of 4-room million-dollar resale flats sold has consistently outstripped that of 5-room flats, bolstered by transactions of almost-new flats that have recently attained MOP in places such as Alkaff Crescent, Bidadari Park Drive, Circuit Road, Dawson Road, St. George's Lane, Strathmore Avenue, and Toa Payoh East. This trend could likely continue in view of the limited stock of 5-room resale flats in attractive central locations.

PropNex expects the HDB resale volume could potentially range from 28,000 to 29,000 units in 2025. Resale flat demand will be supported by various groups of buyers, including first- and second-timer families, permanent residents, and former private home owners who have sat out the 15-month wait-out period after selling their private homes.

Meanwhile, we project that the HDB resale flat prices may rise by 5% to 7% in 2025 - moderating from the 9.7% growth in 2024. The resilient HDB resale market could bode well for the private housing segment, in that some flat owners may seek to leverage the proceeds from the sale of their flat to purchase a private home - particularly with an exciting pipeline of launches lined up in the coming years (based on the slate of private residential sites sold by the government)."